Here’s the harsh truth: Tommy Novak is a player who leaves you scratching your head. On paper, he’s a no-brainer—talented, skilled, and statistically impressive. But on the ice? It’s a different story. Let’s break it down.
Watching Novak play, it’s easy to see why the Pittsburgh Penguins were eager to bring him on board. His skill set is undeniable, and his versatility suggests he could thrive in various roles across the lineup. Throughout his career, whether in Nashville or Pittsburgh, Novak has consistently posted impressive underlying numbers—the kind that make you pause and think, “Wait, is this guy actually underrated?” Take his scoring chance and expected goal metrics, for example. They’ve often placed him among the best on his team, and at times, those numbers have translated into real production. Between the 2022-23 and 2024-25 seasons in Nashville, he scored 48 goals in 176 games, averaging around 23 goals per 82 games. Not bad, right?
But here’s where it gets controversial: During that same period, his 5-on-5 goal-scoring rate of 0.99 goals per 60 minutes ranked him 60th out of 520 forwards who logged at least 500 minutes of ice time. That’s ahead of big names like Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and even Leon Draisaitl. Does this mean Novak is better than these players? Absolutely not. But it does suggest there’s something there—a consistent ability to generate opportunities over time. And this season, his advanced stats remain strong. Paired with rookie center Ben Kindel, Novak’s line has consistently out-shot and out-chanced opponents, making it one of the Penguins’ most effective combinations—even if the goals haven’t followed.
And this is the part most people miss: Novak’s frustration isn’t just about his lack of goal-scoring in Pittsburgh. It’s about the visible missed opportunities. At 28, he’s in his prime, yet he often finds himself in prime scoring positions only to falter. The overtime game against Seattle is a perfect example: alone with the puck, he stick-handled himself out of a golden chance instead of capitalizing. It’s moments like these that make him a frustrating player to watch—and to root for.
Yes, he’s only scored two goals in his first 23 games with the Penguins, a significant drop from his Nashville days. But is it too late for him to turn it around? Not necessarily. His shooting percentage is currently eight points below his career average, and he’s still getting into good positions. The question is: can he finish? Here’s the real debate: Is Novak a player who’s simply underperforming, or is this the ceiling we should expect?
The Penguins owe it to themselves to give him more time, even if it’s just to assess his trade value down the line. After all, he’s a skilled forward with proven goal-scoring potential on a team that lacks depth in that department. But the clock is ticking. If Novak can’t start converting those chances, his time in Pittsburgh might be shorter than expected.
What do you think? Is Tommy Novak a diamond in the rough, or a player who’s already shown his peak? Let’s hear your take in the comments.
